With the closing of one year and the start of the next I thought I would take some time and jot down some predictions for 2010. I want to do this for a couple of reasons. First it allows me to shares my thoughts on the next 12 months with a lot of people who can point out my errors. Second it allows me to look back in 6 or 12 months and evaluate how I did reading all the tea leaves of real estate investing
1) We will see the peak in residential foreclosure in 2010
2) The Case-Shiller Index will turn negative and continue negative until July or August which will prove to be the bottom people have been looking for
3) Duplexes – Quads will prove to be great buys in 2010 assuming you can get financing as banks will want to dump these as rents continue to get soft and loan quality continues to get worse
4) Great Long Term Holds can be purchase in 2010
5) Rents stay soft for all of 2010 (But 2011 will see this turn around)
6) Small Commercial apartments 5-40 units start to foreclose in greater numbers providing excellent buys late in the year
7) Government extends the first time buyer program at least 1 more time as real estate stays soft through Q1
8) The Fed stays on hold all year and does not raise rates in 2010
9) Stock market (Dow) will retest 7,500 before June 2010
10) Home building industry consolidates to remove capacity from the system as new housing starts stays weak throughout 2010 as we burn through the foreclosures
As always let me know what you think.
Good Investing in 2010
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